AUBANK - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Analysis for AU Small Finance Bank 🏦

📊 Swing Trade Rating

Rating: 3.3

AUBANK sits in a complex zone—fundamentals show growth and institutional interest is rising, yet the technicals hint at caution. This isn’t a high-conviction swing setup just yet, but it’s worth tracking.

✅ Positives

Strong ROE of 22.3%: Reflects solid profitability and efficient use of equity.

Rising Institutional Interest: FII (+2.1%) and DII (+1.7%) inflows signal growing confidence.

EPS of ₹13.4: Indicates earnings stability.

Price Above DMA 200: At ₹740, it's comfortably above its long-term trend line (₹675).

MACD at -13 and RSI at 39.2: Nearing oversold zone, which could present a technical bounce opportunity.

❌ Caution Flags

P/E of 162 vs. Industry P/E 20.3: Huge overvaluation risk in the short term.

No Book Value Provided: Missing info makes it harder to assess fundamental cushion.

Debt-to-Equity of 3.56: Indicates heavy leverage—can amplify volatility.

Volume Just Below Average: Could point to waning short-term interest.

PEG Ratio of 3.31: Price likely exceeds justified growth.

🎯 Optimal Entry Zone

If looking to enter, wait for price action near ₹725–₹735. That’s close to support with room to bounce, especially if RSI pushes above 42 and MACD begins to flatten.

💼 Exit Strategy (If Holding)

First Target Zone: ₹755–₹765 (close to 50 DMA resistance)

Extended Target: ₹795–₹810 if momentum improves and RSI reaches 55+

Stop Loss: ₹715, just below swing support to protect capital

🧠 Final View

AU Bank offers institutional support and healthy ROE, but its valuation and high leverage make it risky for short-term swings. If you’re already holding, consider trimming near DMA 50 unless bullish indicators surface. Wait for volume + MACD reversal before any fresh entry.

Want to compare this with another private banking peer like Bandhan or RBL for swing rotation? I can run a quick matchup. 📊💬

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