AMBUJACEM - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.0

Ambuja Cements is shaping up as a strong technical candidate for a momentum-based swing trade. While valuations are elevated and profit softness warrants attention, bullish indicators and volume strength offer a compelling setup for short-term trading.

✅ Technical & Fundamental Positives

MACD (12.6): Indicates bullish momentum building, supported by price action.

RSI (65.2): Strong reading—approaching breakout levels, not yet overheated.

Price Above 50-DMA & 200-DMA: At ₹610, the stock is comfortably above both key support zones (₹579 & ₹559).

Strong Volume: Nearly 1.6x the weekly average, shows high participation and conviction.

P/E of 36.2 vs Industry 51.1: Attractive earnings valuation relative to peers.

Debt-to-Equity (0.01): Virtually debt-free, supports operational flexibility.

DII Inflows (+1.40%): Positive domestic sentiment backing recent move.

❌ Risks & Constraints

Qtr Profit Drop (-3.56%): From ₹2,115 Cr. to ₹884 Cr.—a significant fall despite earnings still being sizable.

PEG Ratio (2.72): Suggests growth is priced in fairly richly.

Low Dividend Yield (0.33%): Not attractive for passive holders.

ROE (8.73%) & ROCE (10.5%): Below ideal efficiency levels.

FII Outflow (-1.17%): Foreign investors stepping back slightly.

52W Index at 67.2%: Stock has room to climb, but faces potential resistance near its high of ₹687.

📥 Entry Strategy

Optimal Buy Range: ₹600–₹615

Confirm entry only if

RSI breaks above 66.5

MACD continues upward slope

Volume remains above 32L

Price holds above 50-DMA ₹579 for 2 sessions

🚪 Exit Plan (If Already Holding)

Initial Target: ₹640–₹650 (short-term resistance)

Mid-Term Target: ₹665–₹685 (approaching 52W high)

Stretch Exit: ₹705–₹725 (if RSI enters 70+ territory and volume sustains above 35L+)

Stop Loss: ₹580 (just under 50-DMA and key support)

🧠 Final Thought

Ambuja is trending well on technicals with elevated volume and a clean chart above support zones. Though fundamentals are cooling slightly, it's suitable for a nimble swing trade if monitored with tight stop-loss discipline and exit tracking.

Want to sketch a breakout projection or dive into sector-wide cement stocks with swing setups? I’ve got a few heavy-hitters on radar we can compare.

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