AMBUJACEM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.8

Entry Zone: ₹555–₹565 (only if MACD flattens and RSI > 52)

Exit if held: ₹610–₹620 (near resistance and 52W high zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📉 Current Price: ₹567
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹625 / ₹453
• 📉 RSI: 49.4 (neutral)
• 📉 MACD: -1.14 (bearish crossover)
• 📈 Volume: 47.2L vs 1W Avg 34.3L (surge — institutional interest)
• 📉 FII Holding Change: -1.52%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +0.92%
• 📈 P/E: 27.4 vs Industry 36.4 (undervalued)
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 1.32 — fair growth pricing

✅ Positive

• 📈 EPS: ₹20.0 — solid earnings base.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.02 — strong balance sheet.
• 📈 Volume Spike: Indicates breakout potential.
• 📈 Qtr Profit Var: 214% — strong sequential growth.
• 📈 Above DMA 200: Long-term trend intact.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 MACD Negative: Momentum still weak.
• 📉 RSI < 52: No bullish confirmation yet.
• 📉 ROCE & ROE: 8.80% and 8.77% — moderate capital efficiency.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: 0.35% — low passive income.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 FII Sentiment: Foreign investors trimmed stake post Q2 — valuation caution.
• 📉 Tax Reversal Impact: ₹1,697 Cr write-back inflated PAT — not purely operational.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Q2FY26 PAT: ₹2,302 Cr vs ₹496 Cr YoY — 4x surge driven by tax reversal and volume growth.
• 📈 Revenue: ₹9,130 Cr — up 25% YoY; highest-ever Q2 topline.
• 📈 Volume: 16.6 million tons — record quarterly sales.
• 📈 Brokerage Targets: Motilal Oswal, JM Financial, Elara Capital raised targets citing margin expansion.
• 📈 Capacity Expansion: FY28 target raised to 155 MTPA from 140 MTPA — low capex via debottlenecking.

🏗️ Industry

• 📈 Cement Demand: Infrastructure and housing driving volume growth.
• 📉 Margin Pressure: Energy and freight costs remain volatile.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ Technically viable swing setup with volume, valuation, and sector tailwinds.
• 📥 Entry near ₹555–₹565 if MACD flattens and RSI > 52.
• 📤 Exit near ₹610–₹620 (resistance and 52W high zone).
• 📈 Fundamentals strong, momentum stabilizing — suitable for alert-driven tactical trades with basket overlay.

Sources

Ambuja Cements Q2 PAT Surge

Brokerage Target Revisions

Capacity Expansion & Revenue