ALKEM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 4.2

Entry Zone: ₹5,580–₹5,640 (only if RSI < 65 and MACD sustains)

Exit if held: ₹5,900–₹5,950 (near 52W high and resistance zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹5,665
• 📈 52W High/Low: ₹5,961 / ₹4,492
• 📈 RSI: 64.5 (approaching overbought)
• 📈 MACD: 38.2 (strong bullish crossover)
• 📈 Volume: 2.4L vs 1W Avg 1.4L (surge confirms breakout)
• 📈 FII/DII Holding Change: +0.36% / +0.13%
• 📈 P/E: 31.5 vs Industry 33.1 (fair valuation)
• 📉 PEG Ratio: 2.26 (growth priced slightly high)

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE & ROE: 19.5% and 19.9% — strong capital efficiency.
• 📈 EPS: ₹197 — robust earnings base.
• 📈 MACD Bullish: Momentum supports continuation.
• 📈 Volume Spike: Institutional interest confirmed.
• 📈 Above DMA 50 & 200: Price trending above key averages.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI > 64: Approaching overbought — caution for fresh entry.
• 📉 PEG Ratio: 2.26 — growth priced at a premium.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: 0.79% — modest passive income.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 US Market Pressure: Q2FY26 commentary flagged pricing challenges in generics segment.
• 📉 R&D Spend: Increased 18% YoY — short-term margin impact despite long-term innovation goals.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Q2FY26 PAT: ₹610 Cr vs ₹226 Cr QoQ — 170% sequential jump driven by India branded sales.
• 📈 CSR Collaboration: ₹77 Cr committed to IIT Bombay for immuno-therapeutics research centre.
• 📦 India Sales: ₹2,450 Cr — up 16% YoY; outperforming peers in anti-infectives and gastro segments.
• 📈 Investor Sentiment: FII/DII accumulation post earnings beat and margin expansion.

💊 Industry

• 📈 Domestic Pharma: Branded generics in India showing strong volume growth post festive season.
• 📉 US Generics: Competitive intensity and regulatory hurdles persist — margin pressure remains.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ Strong swing setup with volume, MACD, and earnings momentum.
• 📥 Entry near ₹5,580–₹5,640 if RSI cools below 65 and MACD sustains.
• 📤 Exit near ₹5,900–₹5,950 (resistance and 52W high zone).
• 📈 Fundamentals robust, momentum strong — suitable for tactical trades with alert logic and basket overlay.

Sources

Business Standard – IIT Bombay Collaboration

Equity Bulls – CSR Research Centre

The Hindu Business Line – ₹77 Cr CSR Investment

Yahoo Finance – Q4 Earnings Highlights