ADANIPOWER - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.9

Entry Zone: ₹150–₹155 (on RSI > 55 and MACD continuation)

Exit if held: ₹175–₹180 (near resistance and 52W high zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹158
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹183 / ₹86.2
• 📈 RSI: 54.0 (neutral to bullish)
• 📈 MACD: 4.38 (positive crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 4.43 Cr vs 1W Avg 5.24 Cr (slightly below average)
• 📉 FII Holding Change: -0.93%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +0.94%
• 📉 Qtr Profit Var: -7.43% (sequential dip)
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 0.85 (undervalued growth)
• 📈 P/E: 27.2 vs Industry 24.7 (slightly premium)

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE & ROE: 23.7% and 27.0% — strong capital efficiency.
• 📈 MACD Bullish: Positive crossover supports swing setup.
• 📈 Above DMA 50 & 200: Trend confirmation with support at ₹147–₹150.
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 0.85 — attractive valuation for growth.
• 📈 EPS: ₹5.83 — improving earnings base.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Sequential PAT Dip: ₹2,735 Cr vs ₹3,119 Cr QoQ.
• 📉 FII Exit: Foreign investors trimmed stake.
• 📉 Volume Dip: Slightly below 1W average — needs confirmation.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: 0.00% — no passive income support.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Profit Decline: Q2FY26 PAT fell 12% QoQ due to lower merchant realizations and higher fuel costs.
• 📉 FII Sentiment: Continued trimming amid sector rotation and valuation concerns.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Q2FY26 Revenue: ₹13,223 Cr — up 61% YoY driven by higher PLF and capacity utilization.
• 📈 EBITDA: ₹4,900 Cr — up 48% YoY with stable margins.
• 📦 Capacity Expansion: 14,000 MW operational; 3,000 MW under construction.
• 📈 DII Accumulation: Domestic institutions increased stake marginally.

⚡ Industry

• 📈 Power Demand Surge: India’s peak demand hit record highs in FY26 — strong tailwinds for IPPs.
• 📈 Thermal Revival: Base load demand and grid stability driving thermal plant utilization.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ Technically favorable for swing trade with MACD, RSI, and DMA alignment.
• 📥 Entry near ₹150–₹155 on RSI > 55 and volume confirmation.
• 📤 Exit near ₹175–₹180 (resistance and 52W high zone).
• ⚠️ Watch for FII sentiment and volume trend — suitable for tactical trades with alert logic.

Sources

Moneycontrol – Q2 Results

ET EnergyWorld – Capacity Update

Business Standard – Sector Outlook