ABREL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

Entry Zone: ₹1,820–₹1,840 (only if RSI < 60 and MACD sustains)

Exit if held: ₹1,975–₹2,000 (near 200 DMA and resistance zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹1,858
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹2,980 / ₹1,563
• 📈 RSI: 63.3 (approaching overbought)
• 📈 MACD: 32.9 (strong bullish crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 86K vs 1W Avg 4.15L (significantly below average)
• 📉 DII Holding Change: -0.31%
• 📈 Qtr Profit Var: +136% (strong YoY growth)
• 📉 P/E: 146 vs Industry 18.8 (extremely overvalued)
• 📉 PEG Ratio: -21.9 (not meaningful due to low earnings)

✅ Positive

• 📈 MACD Bullish: Strong crossover supports momentum continuation.
• 📈 Above DMA 50: Price trending above short-term support.
• 📈 EPS: ₹5.26 — improving earnings base.
• 📈 Qtr Profit Growth: 136% YoY — operational efficiency improving.
• 📉 Debt-to-Equity: 0.89 — moderate leverage.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI > 60: Approaching overbought — risk of short-term pullback.
• 📉 Volume Weakness: Significantly below average — low conviction.
• 📉 Valuation Risk: P/E of 146 — nearly 8x industry average.
• 📉 ROCE & ROE: 4.25% and 3.84% — weak return metrics.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Sequential PAT Dip: ₹24 Cr vs ₹27.5 Cr QoQ — margin compression.
• 📉 DII Sentiment: Domestic institutions trimmed stake amid valuation concerns.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Q2FY26 Revenue: ₹1,576 Cr — up 19% YoY driven by C&I solar and wind projects.
• 📈 Investment Talks: Grasim’s clean energy arm in advanced discussions with Qatar’s Nebras Power for $400M infusion

  MoneyControl

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• 📦 Project Pipeline: 2.4 GW under development across 9 states — strong visibility.
• 📈 ESG Ratings: Upgraded by MSCI and Sustainalytics for carbon reduction roadmap

  adityabirlarenewables.com

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🔋 Industry

• 📈 Renewable Push: India targeting 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 — sector tailwinds strong.
• 📉 Tariff Pressure: Competitive bidding and grid constraints impacting margins.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for fresh swing entry unless RSI cools below 60 and volume improves.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹1,975–₹2,000 (200 DMA and resistance zone).
• 📈 Momentum strong, fundamentals mixed — suitable for tactical trades with alert logic and tight stop-loss.

Sources

Aditya Birla Renewables – Official Site

adityabirlarenewables.com

Economic Times – ABREL Q1 Results

The Economic Times

Moneycontrol – Investment Talks

MoneyControl