ABREL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.8

📊 Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL) shows weak fundamentals with very high P/E (136 vs industry 18.1), low ROCE (4.25%) and ROE (3.84%), and modest EPS (5.26 ₹). Technically, the stock is trading near its 50 DMA (1,744 ₹) but below 200 DMA (1,912 ₹), with RSI at 49.1 indicating neutral momentum and MACD negative. Quarterly profit improved (+136% YoY), but overall valuation and technical weakness make ABREL a risky swing trade candidate.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 1,700–1,730 ₹ (near short-term support).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 1,850–1,900 ₹ resistance or if price falls below 1,680 ₹ support.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Quarterly PAT growth (+136%) highlights operational improvement (27.5 Cr. → 24 Cr. with better margins).
• 💵 EPS of 5.26 ₹ provides earnings support despite weak fundamentals.
• 📊 Book value of 401 ₹ offers some valuation cushion.
• 📈 Price close to 50 DMA (1,744 ₹), offering potential rebound zone.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Extremely high P/E (136) compared to industry average (18.1), suggesting severe overvaluation.
• 📉 ROCE (4.25%) and ROE (3.84%) are weak, showing poor efficiency.
• 📉 PEG ratio of -20.5 indicates poor growth alignment with valuation.
• 📉 Dividend yield of 0.12% offers negligible income return.
• 📉 Price below 200 DMA (1,912 ₹), signaling long-term weakness.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 DII holdings decreased (-0.31%), showing reduced domestic institutional confidence.
• 📉 MACD negative (-12.4), confirming bearish undertone.
• 📉 Trading volume (1.02 lakh vs avg 1.99 lakh) is lower, indicating reduced liquidity.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 PAT growth (+136%) highlights operational recovery despite small base.
• 📊 Stable FII holdings show consistent foreign investor confidence.
• 📈 Book value remains strong relative to current price.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE is 18.1, far lower than ABREL’s 136, indicating severe overvaluation.
• 📈 Real estate sector outlook remains positive, supported by housing demand and infrastructure growth.

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ ABREL is fundamentally weak and technically bearish, making it a risky swing trade candidate. Entry near 1,700–1,730 ₹ may offer speculative opportunities, with exit near 1,850–1,900 ₹. Strict risk management is essential given stretched valuation, weak efficiency, and declining institutional support.

I can also prepare a peer comparison of ABREL with DLF and Godrej Properties to highlight relative swing trade opportunities. Would you like me to do that?