ABREL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Analysis for Aditya Birla Renewable Energy Ltd. 🌱 (ABREL)

📊 Swing Trade Rating

Rating: 1.8

ABREL appears to be under significant technical and fundamental pressure. With declining profitability, bearish indicators, and no signs of reversal, it's not a strong candidate for swing trading at this time. Short-term trading could be highly speculative and risky.

✅ Mild Technical Setup

Trading near recent low (₹1,638): May act as short-term support

DII Interest Rise (+0.88%): Suggests slight domestic institutional backing

High Book Value (₹344): Could provide a long-term valuation buffer

⚠️ Major Red Flags

Poor Profitability: ROCE (-0.16%), ROE (-2.36%), EPS (-₹17.4), PAT decline ₹-44.5 Cr. → ₹-16.8 Cr.

Bearish Technicals: RSI (24.2) in oversold territory with no momentum signal; MACD (-85.2) shows aggressive selling

Volume Weakness: Just 80.9K vs 1-week avg 3L+, indicating lack of market participation

Trend Breakdown: Price below both 50-DMA (₹2,187) and 200-DMA (₹2,171)

Debt Concern: Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.30 could strain future growth

52w Index (20.3%): Massive fall from high of ₹3,142 — sentiment extremely negative

No P/E or PEG Ratio: Makes valuation unclear and growth assumptions speculative

Minimal Dividend Yield (0.10%): Not attractive for income seekers

🎯 Entry Strategy

Avoid entry until significant reversal signs appear

Possible Entry Range: ₹1,900–₹1,920 only if

RSI rises above 35

MACD begins flattening or turns positive

Volume returns > 3L with green candlesticks

Without these triggers, entry is not advised due to breakdown risk.

💼 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Short-Term Exit: ₹2,000–₹2,050 if slight bounce occurs

Medium-Term Resistance: ₹2,170–₹2,200 (near DMA levels)

Stretch Target: ₹2,350+ if sentiment revives

Stop Loss: ₹1,880 to minimize downside

🧠 Final Take

ABREL is fundamentally weak and technically bearish. While deep oversold zones occasionally spark short squeezes, this stock currently lacks momentum, earnings, and valuation support. Best to avoid swing entries unless strong reversals materialize.

Would you like to compare ABREL's performance to other renewables like ReNew, Inox Green, or JSW Energy? That could shine a spotlight on stronger alternatives ⚡📉.

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