ABCAPITAL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 4.1

Entry Zone: ₹315–₹325 (only if RSI cools below 65 and MACD sustains)

Exit if held: ₹335–₹340 (near 52W ceiling and breakout zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹332
• 📈 52W High/Low: ₹336 / ₹149
• 📈 RSI: 70.9 (overbought zone)
• 📈 MACD: 9.50 (strong bullish crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 40.3L vs 1W Avg 120L (below average)
• 📉 FII Holding Change: -0.37%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +0.76%
• 📉 Qtr Profit Var: -11.2% (sequential dip)
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 0.29 (undervalued growth)
• 📈 P/E: 30.3 vs Industry 29.2 (fair valuation)

✅ Positive

• 📈 MACD Bullish: Strong crossover supports momentum continuation.
• 📈 Above DMA 50 & 200: Trend confirmation with breakout potential.
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 0.29 — attractive valuation for growth.
• 📈 DII Accumulation: Domestic institutions increasing stake.
• 📈 EPS: ₹11 — solid earnings base.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI > 70: Overbought — risk of short-term pullback.
• 📉 Volume Dip: Below weekly average — needs confirmation.
• 📉 FII Exit: Foreign investors trimmed stake.
• 📉 High Leverage: Debt-to-equity at 4.56 — aggressive capital structure.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Sequential PAT Dip: ₹916 Cr vs ₹676 Cr QoQ — margin compression in NBFC segment.
• 📉 FII Sentiment: Continued trimming amid valuation concerns.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Q2FY26 PAT: ₹916 Cr — up 35% YoY, beating estimates.
• 📈 Loan Book: ₹1.02 Lakh Cr — up 28% YoY with strong retail traction.
• 📦 Digital Expansion: Launched ABCD app for integrated lending, insurance, and wealth services.
• 📈 Credit Rating: Affirmed AA+ by CRISIL and ICRA.

🏦 Industry

• 📈 NBFC Tailwinds: Retail credit demand surging across Tier 2/3 cities.
• 📉 Regulatory Tightening: RBI pushing for stricter provisioning and risk norms.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ Technically strong swing setup with MACD, DMA, and PEG alignment.
• 📥 Entry near ₹315–₹325 if RSI cools below 65 and volume confirms.
• 📤 Exit near ₹335–₹340 (52W ceiling and breakout zone).
• ⚠️ Watch RSI and volume trend — suitable for tactical trades with alert logic.

Sources

Moneycontrol – Q2 Results

[Business Standard – Loan Book Growth](https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/aditya-birla-capital-q2-profit-up-35-loan-book-crosses-rs-1-lakh-crore