ABCAPITAL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📊 Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAPITAL) shows moderate fundamentals with ROE (12.5%) and ROCE (9.48%) at acceptable levels, but debt-to-equity is high (4.56). Valuation is slightly above industry average (P/E 32.0 vs 30.2), though PEG ratio of 0.31 suggests growth is attractively priced. Technically, the stock is trading above both 50 DMA (333 ₹) and 200 DMA (278 ₹), with RSI at 49.4 indicating neutral momentum and MACD positive. Quarterly profit declined (-11.2%), raising caution, but overall liquidity and institutional support make ABCAPITAL a fair candidate for swing trading.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 340–345 ₹ (near short-term support).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 365–370 ₹ resistance or if price falls below 335 ₹ support.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Price trading above 50 DMA (333 ₹) and 200 DMA (278 ₹), confirming bullish undertone.
• 💵 EPS of 11.0 ₹ supports earnings strength.
• 📊 PEG ratio of 0.31 indicates growth is attractively valued.
• 📈 DII holdings increased (+0.76%), reflecting domestic institutional confidence.
• 📉 Strong trading liquidity with volume ~34.4 lakh shares.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High debt-to-equity ratio (4.56), raising financial risk.
• 📉 ROCE (9.48%) is modest compared to peers.
• 📉 Dividend yield of 0.00% offers no income return.
• 📉 Quarterly profit variation (-11.2%) shows earnings slowdown.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 FII holdings decreased (-0.37%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT declined (916 Cr. vs 676 Cr. previous base, but sequential slowdown).

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 DII inflows (+0.76%) add support to stock momentum.
• 📊 EPS remains stable, supporting valuation despite profit decline.
• 📈 Strong 52-week performance (90.8%) highlights consistent investor demand.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE is 30.2, slightly lower than ABCAPITAL’s 32.0, suggesting modest premium valuation.
• 📈 Financial services sector outlook remains positive, supported by credit growth and diversified business expansion.

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ Aditya Birla Capital is technically stable but fundamentally moderate, making it a fair swing trade candidate. Entry near 340–345 ₹ offers a favorable risk-reward setup, with exit near 365–370 ₹. Strict risk management is essential given high debt levels and recent profit slowdown.

I can also prepare a peer comparison of ABCAPITAL with Bajaj Finserv and HDFC Ltd. to highlight relative swing trade opportunities. Would you like me to do that?