AADHARHFC - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Analysis for Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd. 🏠

📈 Swing Trade Rating

Rating: 4.0

The technical setup here is solid, backed by decent momentum indicators and acceptable fundamentals. While not without its caveats, especially on leverage, this stock could present a favorable swing trade opportunity with the right timing.

✅ Bullish Indicators

MACD (16.7) and RSI (63.2): Strong upward momentum. RSI approaching overbought territory, so watch for early signals of reversal.

Trading Above Key Averages: Price is above both DMA 50 (₹469) and DMA 200 (₹437), which reinforces trend strength.

Reasonable Valuation: P/E (23.2) is slightly above industry average (20.0), but EPS ₹22 and PEG Ratio 0.86 make it still attractive.

Strong ROE (16.9%): Indicates solid return on equity, supporting upside.

Qtr Profit Growth: Solid 18.6% growth in PAT over previous quarter shows operating momentum.

FII Inflow (+0.26%): Suggests positive sentiment from foreign institutions.

❌ Risk Factors

High Debt-to-Equity (2.56): Indicates leveraged balance sheet—raises financial exposure.

Volume Weakness: Daily volume (7.6L) falls short of weekly average (20L+), suggesting lower short-term conviction.

No Dividend: Holding offers no income cushion.

Mild DII Outflow (-0.15%): Could reflect domestic caution on valuation or risk exposure.

📌 Optimal Entry Price

A tactical entry would be ideal in the ₹495–₹500 range if the stock consolidates slightly. Watch for volume uptick and RSI stabilizing below 60 before entering—this reduces entry risk.

🧳 Exit Plan (If Holding)

First Target Zone: ₹525–₹530 (near recent highs and potential resistance)

Stretch Target: ₹540–₹550 if momentum accelerates and RSI moves into the 70–75 band

Protective Stop Loss: ₹485—just below DMA 50 to control downside risk

🧠 Final Thought

AADHARHFC is trending well and offers a decent trade setup for momentum chasers—but it needs volume confirmation and vigilance on leverage. If you're already in, watch for resistance around ₹530 to trim exposure and trail stops accordingly.

Want help visualizing its moving average convergence or comparing to peers like LIC Housing or Can Fin Homes? I can help plot that next. 📊✨

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