AADHARHFC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

Entry Zone: ₹495–₹505 (if MACD turns positive and RSI > 50)

Exit if held: ₹530–₹540 (near resistance and 52W ceiling)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📉 Current Price: ₹509
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹548 / ₹340
• 📉 RSI: 46.4 (neutral zone)
• 📉 MACD: -1.24 (bearish crossover)
• 📈 Volume: 2.56L vs 1W Avg 2.08L (above average)
• 📈 FII Holding Change: +0.53%
• 📉 DII Holding Change: -0.18%
• 📈 Qtr Profit Growth: +18.6%
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 0.86 (undervalued growth)
• 📈 P/E: 23.2 vs Industry 17.7 (slightly premium)

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong ROE: 16.9% — efficient equity utilization.
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 0.86 — growth priced attractively.
• 📈 FII Accumulation: Foreign investors increasing stake.
• 📈 Above DMA 200: Long-term trend remains intact.
• 📈 EPS: ₹22 — solid earnings base.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 MACD Negative: Indicates short-term weakness.
• 📉 RSI Below 50: Momentum not yet confirmed.
• 📉 High Leverage: Debt-to-equity at 2.56 — typical for housing finance but adds risk.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: 0.00% — no passive income support.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Sequential PAT Dip: Q2FY26 PAT fell to ₹237 Cr from ₹245 Cr QoQ.
• 📉 DII Trimming: Domestic institutions reduced exposure slightly.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Kotak Securities: Initiated ‘Buy’ with ₹550 target — 41% upside projected.
• 📈 Citi: Reiterated ‘Buy’ with ₹650 target — 20% upside on AUM growth and stable spreads.
• 📦 Distribution Strategy: Reoriented into ‘Urban’ and ‘Emerging’ segments for better risk-adjusted returns.
• 📈 Q2FY26 PAT: ₹237 Cr — up 18.6% YoY despite sequential dip.

🏠 Industry

• 📈 Housing Finance Boom: Sector seeing renewed investor interest post strong Q2 results across players.
• 🏗️ Affordable Housing Push: Government schemes and urbanization driving demand for low-ticket loans.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for fresh swing entry unless MACD turns positive and RSI > 50.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹530–₹540 (resistance zone and 52W ceiling).
• 📈 Fundamentals strong, technicals recovering — suitable for cautious accumulation with alert logic.

Sources: Moneycontrol, Kotak Institutional Equities, Citi India Research, ET BFSI