NATCOPHARM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📉 Optimal Entry Price: ₹800–₹815 (near RSI support and below 50 DMA)

📈 Exit Strategy (if holding): ₹880–₹900 (short-term resistance zone)

🔷 Positive

• 📊 Low P/E of 8.76: Significantly undervalued compared to industry average of 33.1.
• 📈 ROCE (31.8%) and ROE (27.5%): Indicate strong capital efficiency and profitability.
• 📉 PEG ratio of 0.06: Suggests deep value relative to growth potential.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04: Reflects a nearly debt-free balance sheet.
• 📊 EPS of ₹93.7: Indicates robust earnings performance.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 MACD at -4.29: Indicates bearish momentum.
• 📉 RSI at 45.0: Neutral zone, not yet signaling reversal.
• 📉 Trading below DMA 50 and 200: Reflects short-term technical weakness.
• 📉 FII holding dropped by 1.43%: Suggests foreign investor caution.
• 📉 52w Index at 19.0%: Indicates significant underperformance over the year.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q3FY25 profit fell 37.75% YoY, triggering a 19% stock drop due to weak revenue and margins

  Outlook Business

  .

• 📉 Company flagged FY26 headwinds from US pricing pressure and global uncertainties

  CNBCTV18

  .

📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 Q4FY25 profit rose 5% YoY to ₹406 Cr., with revenue up 16% YoY to ₹1,287 Cr.

  CNBCTV18

• 📊 EBITDA grew 10.2% YoY, and operating margins remained strong at 44.89%

  CNBCTV18

  .

• 📈 Natco launched Everolimus tablets (generic Zortress) and is pursuing strategic acquisitions

  The Economic Times

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💊 Industry

• 🏥 Operates in the pharma sector, which is resilient but faces pricing pressure in generics and regulatory hurdles.
• 📉 Industry P/E of 33.1 suggests Natco trades at a steep discount, possibly due to recent performance volatility.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Natco Pharma is a value-based swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals but technical weakness and sector headwinds.
• 📌 Entry near ₹800–₹815 offers a low-risk setup if RSI stabilizes and MACD reverses.
• 🚪 If already holding, consider exiting near ₹880–₹900, aligning with short-term resistance and recovery zone.

Sources

CNBCTV18

+2

I can also chart Natco Pharma’s RSI and MACD trends to help you time your entry more precisely.