JUBLFOOD - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📉 Jubilant FoodWorks is technically weak but shows signs of margin recovery and earnings growth, making it a cautious swing trade candidate.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price: ₹580–₹590

🚪 Exit Target (if already holding): ₹615–₹625

🔍 Positive

• 📈 Quarterly PAT rose from ₹49.5 Cr to ₹66.7 Cr, a 29.5% increase, indicating earnings recovery.
• 📈 DII holding increased by 0.74%, showing renewed domestic institutional interest.
• 📉 RSI at 42.8 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory.
• 📊 MACD at -5.05 may indicate a bottoming trend if momentum reverses.
• 📈 Brokerages like Jefferies maintain a bullish target of ₹1,000 based on margin recovery optimism

  MoneyControl

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⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 P/E of 173 is significantly above the industry average (149), indicating overvaluation.
• 📉 PEG ratio of -8.16 reflects poor growth-adjusted valuation.
• 📉 Price below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA (₹616 and ₹642), confirming short-term weakness.
• 📉 Volume below weekly average (11.49L vs 13.50L), showing reduced momentum.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.31 is relatively high for a consumer-facing business.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 FII holding declined by 0.94%, reflecting cautious foreign sentiment.
• 📉 Kotak Securities and HDFC Bank flagged concerns over expensive valuation despite earnings growth

  MoneyControl

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📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 Q4 profit jumped 93% YoY, with revenue up 19.1% and EBITDA margin improving to 19.2%

  The Economic Times

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• 📈 Jefferies remains bullish with a ₹1,000 target, citing margin recovery and operational efficiency

  MoneyControl

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• 📈 Company continues to expand its delivery footprint and digital ordering channels.

🍕 Industry

• 🍕 QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) sector benefits from rising urban consumption and digital food delivery trends.
• 📉 Competitive intensity and input cost inflation remain key risks.

✅ Conclusion

• 📉 Jubilant FoodWorks is moderately suitable for swing trading due to improving earnings and technical support near ₹580.
• 🎯 Entry near ₹580–₹590 with exit around ₹615–₹625 is recommended for short-term traders.
• 📊 Long-term investors should monitor margin trends and valuation compression for better entry points.

Sources

MoneyControl

Moneycontrol – Brokerages optimistic about margin recovery

The Economic Times

Economic Times – Q4 profit jumps 93% YoY

I can also compare Jubilant FoodWorks with Devyani International or Westlife Foodworld to find stronger swing setups in the QSR space.