IDFCFIRSTB - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

🧠 Overview

IDFCFIRSTB offers a mixed swing profile: it's fundamentally undervalued and backed by institutional interest, but the current technical setup is underwhelming. If momentum picks up, it could offer a moderate short-term opportunity, though caution is warranted due to weak profitability and recent profit contraction.

📉 Technical Snapshot

Current Price (₹70.3) sits below DMA 50 (₹71.5) and just above DMA 200 (₹68.4) → neutral-to-weak momentum

RSI (37.4): Near oversold, could suggest short-term bounce potential

MACD (–0.37): Negative but not deeply so — may flatten soon

Volume: Below weekly average → reduced trading interest, not ideal for swing setups

📊 Fundamental Factors

Valuation

P/E (39.6) is significantly above Industry PE (12.6) → looks expensive

PEG (0.33) → signals undervaluation relative to earnings growth, which adds appeal

Profitability

EPS (₹1.77) and ROE (4.21%): weak performance, especially for a banking stock

ROCE (6.22%): mediocre capital efficiency

Qtr Profit Var (–29.4%): sharp decline — a red flag for earnings momentum

Debt to Equity (7.97): high leverage typical for the sector, not a new concern

🔁 Ownership & Sentiment

FII Holding ↓ (–1.88%): notable pullback

DII Holding ↑ (+4.10%): strong domestic institutional interest — supportive

🎯 Trading Plan

📥 Optimal Entry: Consider entering around ₹68.5–₹69.0 if RSI climbs above 40 and MACD flattens or begins crossover. Look for confirmation via volume surge.

📤 Exit if Holding: Target range ₹74–₹76. Watch RSI nearing 60+ and MACD peaking for potential exit signals.

📝 Final Thought

Not the strongest swing candidate, but with support near ₹68 and growth-leaning valuation metrics, it might appeal to traders watching for a bounce. A tighter risk setup and close chart monitoring will be key here.

If you want, I can highlight other midcap banks flashing stronger momentum signals — want to take a peek? 📈💬

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