HAPPSTMNDS - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Trend Weakness: Price is below both 50 DMA (₹589) and 200 DMA (₹644), indicating a short-term downtrend.

MACD Negative: At −5.82, MACD confirms bearish momentum—no sign of reversal yet.

RSI Neutral-to-Weak: 45.7 suggests consolidation with a slight bearish bias.

Volume Uptick: Current volume (4.22L) is above 1-week average (3.04L), showing increased interest despite weak momentum.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Extremely Stretched: P/E of 46.8 and PEG of 936 are red flags—pricing is disconnected from earnings growth.

Moderate Efficiency: ROCE 13.9%, ROE 12.3%—acceptable but not swing-grade elite.

Earnings Decline: PAT dropped from ₹79.4 Cr to ₹40.6 Cr (−7.44% Qtr Var)—momentum is fading.

High Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.76 is elevated for a tech company.

Institutional Sentiment: FII increased (+0.29%), DII flat (−0.01%)—neutral to mildly positive.

🧠 Analyst Sentiment

According to StockPriceArchive, Happiest Minds is trading near its 52-week low (₹519), with bearish momentum and long-term trend weakness. The 25-day moving average at ₹577.85 is a key technical reference. Historical returns are negative across 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year periods, indicating poor swing reliability.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹560–₹570: Near recent support and below 50 DMA. Entry only if MACD flattens and RSI crosses 50 with volume confirmation.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹610–₹625: First resistance zone near 50 DMA. Exit if RSI crosses 68 or MACD turns flat.

Extended Target: ₹675–₹700 only if momentum accelerates with strong volume.

Trailing Stop: ₹548 to protect downside.

🧠 Summary

HAPPSTMNDS offers a low-conviction swing setup—technical indicators are weak, valuation is excessive, and earnings have contracted. While volume and institutional interest show signs of accumulation, confirmation signals are lacking. Best suited for tactical trades with tight risk control. Entry near ₹565 with MACD recovery may offer a short-term bounce, but exit near ₹625 is prudent unless momentum strengthens.

Let me know if you'd like a filtered basket with PEG < 1.5, ROCE > 15%, and MACD > 5 for higher-probability swing setups.

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