APLAPOLLO - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

Entry Zone: ₹1,750–₹1,770 (if RSI > 60 and volume rebounds)

Exit if held: ₹1,880–₹1,920 (near 52W high and psychological resistance)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹1,782
• 📈 52W High/Low: ₹1,936 / ₹1,273
• 📈 RSI: 60.4 (bullish zone)
• 📈 MACD: 23.6 (positive crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 5.5L vs 1W Avg 12.1L (declining interest)
• 📈 FII Holding Change: +0.67%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +2.09%
• 📉 Qtr Profit Dip: ₹106 Cr vs ₹116 Cr QoQ
• 📉 PEG Ratio: -7.93 (valuation distortion)
• 📈 P/E: 108 vs Industry 23.6 (premium pricing)

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong Institutional Interest: Both FII and DII increased holdings.
• 📈 Above DMA 50 & 200: Bullish trend confirmation.
• 📈 MACD & RSI: Positive crossover and momentum zone.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.25 — manageable leverage.
• 📈 Qtr Profit Surge YoY: 1,695% jump — strong base effect recovery.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Valuation Risk: P/E of 108 — nearly 5x industry average.
• 📉 Volume Weak: Current volume less than half of weekly average.
• 📉 EPS: ₹16.6 — modest earnings base for current valuation.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: Just 0.32% — low passive income.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Sequential PAT Decline: Q2FY26 PAT fell to ₹106 Cr from ₹116 Cr QoQ.
• 📉 Volume Miss: Q2 volumes at 6.5L tonnes vs 6.8L expected — slight underperformance.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Q2FY26 Beat: EBITDA per tonne improved to ₹4,900 vs ₹4,600 guidance.
• 📦 New Product Line: SG Premium launched at ₹49,500/tonne to counter secondary steel players.
• 📈 Management Guidance: 10–15% volume growth expected in FY26 with stable margins.
• 📈 Operating Leverage: Richer mix and cost control drove margin expansion.

🏭 Industry

• 🏗️ Infra Push: Structural steel demand rising with government-led construction and real estate growth.
• 📈 Tube Segment Growth: Shift from conventional steel to modular tubes supports long-term demand.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ Technically favorable for swing trade with MACD, RSI, and DMA alignment.
• 📥 Entry near ₹1,750–₹1,770 if volume rebounds and RSI sustains above 60.
• 📤 Exit near ₹1,880–₹1,920 (resistance zone and 52W ceiling).
• ⚠️ Valuation stretched — suitable for short-term tactical trades with alert logic.

Sources: Business Standard, Economic Times, APL Apollo Investor Announcements