ADANIENSOL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.3

Entry Zone: ₹950–₹970 (only if RSI cools to 60 and MACD sustains)

Exit if held: ₹1,030–₹1,050 (near resistance and 52W ceiling)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹983
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹1,091 / ₹588
• 📈 RSI: 65.8 (approaching overbought)
• 📈 MACD: 26.7 (strong bullish crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 18.6L vs 1W Avg 27.6L (below average)
• 📉 FII Holding Change: -2.79%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +3.08%
• 📉 Qtr Profit Var: -43.6% (sharp decline)
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 1.56 (growth priced reasonably)
• 📉 P/E: 191 vs Industry 52.3 (extremely overvalued)

✅ Positive

• 📈 MACD Bullish: Strong crossover suggests momentum continuation.
• 📈 DII Accumulation: Domestic institutions increasing stake.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.52 — manageable leverage.
• 📈 Above DMA 50 & 200: Trend confirmation for swing setup.
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 1.56 — reasonable for growth sector.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Valuation Risk: P/E of 191 — nearly 4x industry average.
• 📉 Profit Decline: PAT dropped from ₹156 Cr to ₹101 Cr QoQ.
• 📉 ROCE & ROE: 5.13% and 3.81% — weak return metrics.
• 📉 Volume Dip: Below weekly average — needs confirmation.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Profit Pressure: Q2FY26 PAT fell 43.6% QoQ amid margin compression.
• 📉 FII Exit: Foreign investors trimmed stake post Q2 results.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Fitch Upgrade: Outlook revised to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’ citing funding resilience and reduced contagion risk.
• 📈 Jefferies Target: ₹1,325 — 16% upside projected with 30% earnings growth forecast.
• 📦 Smart Metering & Grid Capex: ₹140B planned for FY26 — growth visibility intact.

⚡ Industry

• 📈 Transmission Expansion: India’s grid modernization and smart metering push driving sector growth.
• 📉 Valuation Stretch: Most listed utilities trading at premium multiples amid capex optimism.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for fresh swing entry unless RSI cools to 60 and volume confirms.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹1,030–₹1,050 (resistance zone and 52W ceiling).
• 📈 Momentum strong, fundamentals mixed — suitable for tactical trades with alert logic and tight stop-loss.

Sources

Fitch upgrades AESL outlook to Stable

ETEnergeyWorld – Fitch Ratings

The Hans India – Fitch Ratings

Jefferies Buy Rating