AAVAS - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

Entry Zone: ₹1,600–₹1,620 (if RSI > 50 and MACD sustains)

Exit if held: ₹1,690–₹1,710 (near 50 DMA and volume ceiling)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📉 Current Price: ₹1,629
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹2,238 / ₹1,517
• 📉 RSI: 49.1 (neutral zone)
• 📈 MACD: 4.61 (positive crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 59.6K vs 1W Avg 82.1K (below average)
• 📉 FII Holding Change: -3.89%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +2.61%
• 📈 Qtr Profit Growth: +10.4%
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 1.28 (reasonable growth pricing)
• 📈 P/E: 21.9 vs Industry 17.7 (slightly premium)

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROE: 14.1% — solid equity efficiency.
• 📈 EPS: ₹74.2 — strong earnings base.
• 📈 MACD Positive: Indicates early momentum.
• 📈 DII Accumulation: Domestic institutions increasing stake.
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 1.28 — growth priced reasonably.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Below DMA 50 & 200: Price under key moving averages.
• 📉 RSI Below 50: Momentum not yet confirmed.
• 📉 FII Exit: Foreign investors trimmed positions significantly.
• 📉 High Leverage: Debt-to-equity at 3.19 — typical for housing finance but adds risk.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Sequential PAT Dip: Q2FY26 PAT fell to ₹139 Cr from ₹154 Cr QoQ.
• 📉 Mixed Technical Trend: MarketsMojo flagged mildly bearish outlook amid sector volatility.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 AUM Growth: Assets under management rose 18% YoY to ₹20,420 Cr in Q4 FY25.
• 📈 Disbursement Surge: Q4 disbursements up 27% QoQ to ₹2,020 Cr.
• 📦 Branch Expansion: Added 30 new branches in FY25, now at 397 locations.
• 📈 Stock Rally: Surged 7% in 2 days in March 2025 on healthy outlook.

🏠 Industry

• 📈 Affordable Housing Push: Government schemes and urbanization driving demand for low-ticket loans.
• 📉 Sector Volatility: Housing finance stocks facing mixed sentiment amid rate cycle and credit cost concerns.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for aggressive swing entry unless RSI > 50 and MACD sustains with volume confirmation.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹1,690–₹1,710 (50 DMA resistance zone).
• 📈 Fundamentals stable, technicals recovering — suitable for cautious accumulation with alert logic.

Sources: Moneycontrol, ET Markets, Business Standard