CGCL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 3.1

📈 Technical analysis

• Chart patterns: Price at 180 ₹ sits far below the 52-week high (232 ₹) and above the low (151 ₹), reflecting a corrective phase with attempts to base near recent lows.
• Moving averages: Below 50 DMA (189 ₹) and 200 DMA (186 ₹), confirming a short-term bearish bias and overhead supply near the DMAs.
• RSI: 30.3 indicates near-oversold levels; momentum is weak but primed for a potential technical bounce.
• MACD: -3.89 remains negative, signaling ongoing bearish momentum and the need for a bullish crossover to confirm reversal.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, pointing to downside exhaustion and a possible short-term mean reversion.
• Volume trends: 5,16,377 vs 1-week avg 9,09,826 shows lighter participation, reducing conviction in immediate directional moves.

🎯 Momentum & trade zones

• Support levels: 176–178 ₹ (recent swing support), 170 ₹ (psychological), 151 ₹ (52-week low).
• Resistance levels: 186–189 ₹ (200/50 DMA cluster), 200 ₹ (psychological), 232 ₹ (52-week high).
• Entry zone: 172–182 ₹ (accumulate on dips near support with tight risk controls).
• Exit zone: 186–200 ₹ (scale out into the DMA cluster and psychological level).
• Trend status: Reversing downward/weak; oversold signals suggest a potential short-term bounce, but trend confirmation requires reclaiming 186–189 ₹ with volume.

✅ Positive

• Earnings momentum: PAT rose to 212 Cr. from 150 Cr.; strong improvement (Qtr Profit Var 145%).
• Capital efficiency: ROE 11.0% and ROCE 11.4% are stable for an NBFC.
• Valuation vs growth: PEG 0.75 suggests reasonable pricing relative to growth.
• Institutional: FII holding increased (+0.11%), indicating incremental foreign interest.

⚠️ Limitation

• Premium valuation: P/E 27.6 above industry 21.2 implies a valuation premium.
• Leverage: Debt-to-equity 1.99 is elevated, raising funding and cycle sensitivity risks.
• Momentum weakness: Price below both DMAs with negative MACD and low RSI.
• Participation: Subpar volume reduces conviction in near-term reversals.

📉 Company negative news

• DII flows: DII holding decreased (-0.24%), hinting at softer domestic institutional sentiment.
• Technical pressure: Persistent rejection near DMAs keeps upside capped.

📊 Company positive news

• Earnings beat: Sequential PAT improvement supports fundamental backdrop.
• FII support: Incremental foreign buying (+0.11%) aids sentiment.

🏭 Industry

• Sector multiple: Industry P/E 21.2 vs CGCL P/E 27.6 signals a premium for growth/quality.
• NBFC setup: Credit growth remains constructive, but rate/liquidity cycles can amplify volatility.

📝 Conclusion

• Setup: Bearish-to-neutral; oversold conditions favor a tactical bounce toward the DMA cluster.
• Plan: Buy dips in 172–182 ₹ with stops below 170 ₹; book into 186–200 ₹ unless price/volume clears 189 ₹ decisively.
• Outlook: Short term: bounce risk-on but fragile; medium term: trend improves only above 189–200 ₹ with strong volume.