TRIVENI - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 2.4

⚙️ Fundamental Analysis of TRIVENI Engineering & Industries Ltd.

✅ Positives

Reasonable Dividend Yield: 0.95% — modest income stream

Book Value: ₹142 vs Price: ₹368 — ~2.6x book, not excessive

FII Interest: +0.64% — foreign investors increasing exposure

Debt-to-Equity: 0.63 — moderate leverage, manageable for capital-intensive sectors

⚠️ Concerns

Sharp Profit Decline

PAT Qtr: ₹2.10 Cr vs ₹183 Cr — -93.2% drop

Indicates operational or seasonal volatility

Weak Profitability Metrics

ROE: 7.93%, ROCE: 8.62% — below ideal for long-term compounding

EPS: ₹9.88 — low earnings base for current valuation

Valuation Stretch

P/E: 38.6 vs Industry PE: 18.3 — trading at a steep premium

PEG Ratio: -2.16 — negative PEG suggests unreliable or declining growth

Technical Weakness

MACD: -7.35 — bearish momentum

RSI: 40.8 — approaching oversold

Price below DMA 50 & DMA 200 — short-term downtrend

DII Sentiment: -0.62% — domestic institutions reducing exposure

📉 Valuation & Ideal Entry Zone

Given the current weakness and valuation

Ideal Entry Zone: ₹310–₹330

Near recent low of ₹305

Offers better margin of safety if earnings stabilize

🧭 Long-Term Investment Outlook

TRIVENI is not a strong long-term candidate at current levels. The sharp drop in profits and weak ROE/ROCE suggest underlying issues. Unless earnings rebound and margins improve, the stock lacks compounding potential.

Holding Period: 6–12 months (if already invested)

Monitor for earnings recovery and ROE improvement

Suitable only for tactical or turnaround investors

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Partial Exit Zone: ₹400–₹420

If price rebounds toward DMA 200 and valuation peak

Full Exit

If ROE remains below 10% for 2+ quarters

If PEG stays negative and EPS stagnates

If price breaks below ₹305 and fails to recover

Reinvest: Only if ROE improves to 12%+, PEG turns positive, and PAT stabilizes

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