PHOENIXLTD - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 3.7

📊 Fundamental & Valuation Analysis

Metric Value Interpretation

Market Cap ₹54,126 Cr Mid-cap real estate

P/E Ratio 55.0 Overvalued vs industry PE of 40.2

PEG Ratio 0.91 Fairly valued for growth

ROE 9.81% Below ideal for long-term compounding

ROCE 11.2% Moderate capital efficiency

Dividend Yield 0.17% Very low income generation

Debt to Equity 0.45 Moderate leverage, manageable risk

📈 Price Trends & Technicals

Indicator Value Signal

Current Price ₹1,508 Near 50 DMA, below 200 DMA

52W High/Low ₹1,968 / ₹1,338 23% below high

DMA 50 / 200 ₹1,542 / ₹1,577 Trading below both — bearish

RSI 48.0 Neutral zone

MACD -19.9 Bearish momentum

Volume Below average Weak participation

🎯 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Given the valuation and technical setup, the ideal entry zone is ₹1,380–₹1,450, near the 52-week low and support levels. This offers a better margin of safety for long-term investors.

🧭 Holding or Exit Strategy

If you already hold Phoenix Mills Ltd

Holding Period: Minimum 3–5 years to benefit from mall expansion and real estate monetization.

Exit Strategy

Partial exit near ₹1,850–₹1,950 (resistance zone)

Hold if PEG <1.2 and ROCE >12%

Exit fully if ROE stagnates below 10% or debt increases significantly

✅ Long-Term Investment Verdict

Pros

PEG ratio <1 suggests undervaluation relative to growth

Strong real estate portfolio across Tier-1 cities

Moderate debt and improving operating margins

Cons

ROE and ROCE below ideal thresholds

High P/E and low dividend yield

Weak technical momentum and recent profit decline

Conclusion: Phoenix Mills Ltd is a moderate long-term candidate with potential upside if accumulated near support levels. Suitable for investors with a 3–5 year horizon and tolerance for real estate sector volatility.

Would you like a peer comparison with DLF, Oberoi Realty, or Prestige Estates?

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