BLUEDART - Investment Analysis: Buy Signal or Bull Trap?
Back to ListInvestment Rating: 3.4
| Stock Code | BLUEDART | Market Cap | 13,487 Cr. | Current Price | 5,700 ₹ | High / Low | 7,225 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 47.0 | Book Value | 713 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.44 % | ROCE | 18.6 % |
| ROE | 15.0 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 5,535 ₹ | DMA 200 | 5,949 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -0.90 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.49 % | PAT Qtr | 108 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 79.5 Cr. |
| RSI | 63.2 | MACD | 25.8 | Volume | 22,427 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 23,892 |
| Low price | 5,190 ₹ | High price | 7,225 ₹ | PEG Ratio | -2.79 | Debt to equity | 0.28 |
| 52w Index | 25.0 % | Qtr Profit Var | 35.9 % | EPS | 105 ₹ | Industry PE | 23.4 |
🔍 Analysis: Blue Dart Express shows decent profitability with ROE at 15% and ROCE at 18.6%, supported by EPS of 105 ₹ and quarterly PAT growth of 35.9%. However, the stock trades at a high P/E of 47 compared to the industry average of 23.4, indicating stretched valuations. Dividend yield is modest at 0.44%. PEG ratio (-2.79) reflects weak earnings growth relative to valuation. Current price (5,700 ₹) is near DMA supports (50 DMA at 5,535 ₹, 200 DMA at 5,949 ₹), showing stability but limited upside compared to its 52-week high (7,225 ₹). RSI at 63.2 suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory.
💡 Entry Zone: Ideal entry would be in the 5,300–5,500 ₹ range, aligning with technical supports. Deeper accumulation possible near 5,190 ₹ (52-week low) for margin of safety.
📈 Exit / Holding Strategy: If already holding, maintain position for 2–3 years given efficiency metrics and sector demand. Consider partial exit near 7,000–7,200 ₹ resistance if valuations stretch further without earnings support. Long-term investors should monitor EPS growth and valuation alignment for sustained compounding.
🌟 Positive
- Strong ROCE (18.6%) and ROE (15%)
- EPS at 105 ₹ supports earnings strength
- Quarterly PAT growth of 35.9% (108 Cr vs 79.5 Cr)
- Low debt-to-equity (0.28), manageable leverage
- DII holdings increased (+0.49%)
⚠️ Limitation
- High P/E (47 vs industry 23.4)
- PEG ratio (-2.79) signals weak growth alignment
- Dividend yield modest (0.44%)
- FII holdings reduced (-0.90%)
📉 Company Negative News
- Valuation stretched compared to industry peers
- Foreign institutional investors reduced stake
📈 Company Positive News
- Quarterly PAT growth and EPS performance strong
- DII stake increased, showing domestic confidence
- Stock trading near DMA supports, indicating stability
🏭 Industry
- Industry PE at 23.4, much lower than Blue Dart’s valuation
- Logistics sector benefits from rising e-commerce and supply chain demand
✅ Conclusion
Blue Dart is a moderate candidate for long-term investment. Strong ROE, ROCE, and EPS support fundamentals, but high P/E and negative PEG ratio limit valuation comfort. Ideal entry is near 5,300–5,500 ₹ for margin of safety. Existing holders should maintain for 2–3 years, with partial exit near 7,000–7,200 ₹ resistance if valuations outpace earnings growth.