BLUEDART - Fundamental Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Fundamental Rating: 2.9

Here’s a thorough look at Blue Dart Express Ltd., India’s premium logistics brand known for time-definite delivery and a strong footprint in the B2B and e-commerce space

🧾 Core Financials & Performance

EPS: ₹104 — healthy absolute earnings, though trailing growth.

ROE: 16.2% | ROCE: 16.3% — good profitability ratios, slightly above industry averages.

Debt-to-Equity: 0.65 — moderate leverage, manageable but notable for a logistics firm.

PAT Decline: ₹48.8 Cr vs ₹55.2 Cr — –8.59% variation shows margin compression; input costs and operational intensity may be impacting results.

Dividend Yield: 0.39% — minor income stream; reinvestment-centric.

💰 Valuation Indicators

P/E Ratio: 61.9 — extraordinarily high compared to industry PE of 28.8; signals steep valuation.

P/B Ratio: ~9.85 (₹6473 ÷ ₹657) — reflects high expectations built into price; premium brand pricing.

PEG Ratio: –3.80 — negative due to weak or flat expected growth; valuation far exceeds fundamentals.

Intrinsic Value Estimate: Between ₹4,750 – ₹5,100 — significantly below CMP; cautious investors may see this as overheated.

📦 Business Model & Competitive Advantage

Sector: Premium express logistics & supply chain solutions.

Strengths

Strong brand equity and pan-India network.

Dominance in aviation-based logistics and B2B express delivery.

DHL support enhances international capabilities.

Challenges

Vulnerable to fuel cost swings and inflation.

Stiff competition from leaner digital-first logistics startups.

Limited scalability without margin dilution.

🔍 Technical Trends

RSI: 40.7 — nearing oversold; short-term bounce possible.

MACD: +29.7 — remains in positive momentum zone.

Volume Weakness: Below 1-week average — suggests muted interest or wait-and-watch sentiment.

🎯 Suggested Entry Zone

₹5,300 – ₹5,600: Undervalued range near 52-week low, offers risk-adjusted entry with margin of safety.

Caution warranted above ₹6,600, given rich valuation metrics.

📈 Long-Term Holding Guidance

Most suited for conservative investors looking for stable returns through

Continued digitization of supply chains.

Growth in e-commerce delivery volumes.

Premium pricing power and brand loyalty.

However, growth is likely capped without margin reinvention or cost optimization. Entry at lower valuations is essential for long-term compounding potential.

Want to compare Blue Dart with newer contenders like Delhivery or TCI Express in terms of scalability, tech adoption, and valuation? I can build a logistics battle map for you. Let’s map it out. 📍

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