UCOBANK - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 3.2

📈 Technical analysis

• Chart patterns: UCOBANK trades near the lower end of its 52-week range (28.7 ₹ vs 46.3 ₹), reflecting a bearish bias with occasional dead-cat bounces.
• Moving averages: Price below 50 DMA (30.3 ₹) and 200 DMA (32.8 ₹) confirms a short- and medium-term downtrend.
• RSI: At 32.8, momentum is weak and nearing oversold, signaling a possible short-term mean reversion.
• MACD: Slightly negative (-0.70) indicates ongoing bearish pressure without strong downside acceleration.
• Bollinger Bands: Price hugging the lower band suggests limited downside before a potential technical bounce.
• Volume trends: Volume (46.3L) is marginally above the 1W average (44.9L), implying selling-led activity rather than accumulation.

🎯 Momentum & trade zones

• Support levels: 27.5–27 ₹ immediate; 26.8 ₹ major support from recent low.
• Resistance levels: 30–30.3 ₹ (50 DMA) and 32.5–32.8 ₹ (200 DMA) are supply zones.
• Entry zone: Cautious buys near 27–29 ₹ only on bullish intraday signals (RSI recovery, positive MACD histogram).
• Exit zone: Book profits into 30–32 ₹; trailing stops advisable if a move toward 32.8 ₹ occurs.
• Trend: Currently reversing downward; oversold oscillators hint at short-term consolidation/bounce rather than trend change.

✅ Positive

• Valuation: P/E 14.3 and PEG 0.38 offer relative value versus growth.
• Earnings: PAT improved to 620 Cr. from 607 Cr. (+2.82%).
• Income: Dividend yield at 1.35% provides modest carry.
• Book value: 25.9 ₹ supports downside near current price.

⚠️ Limitation

• Momentum: Price below 50 & 200 DMA; RSI weak; MACD negative.
• Efficiency: ROCE 5.76% and ROE 8.38% indicate modest profitability.
• Leverage: Debt-to-equity 10.1 is high for sustained rerating.
• Performance: 52w index 9.68% shows significant underperformance.

📉 Company negative news

• Institutions: DII holding fell by -0.22%, signaling softer domestic confidence.
• Technical tone: Persistent bearish structure with rallies being sold.

📊 Company positive news

• Earnings trend: Sequential PAT uptick and stable EPS backdrop.
• Ownership: FII holding unchanged; no fresh foreign selling signaled.
• Yield: Dividend supports total return in a weak tape.

🏦 Industry

• Sector valuation: Industry P/E 7.89 below UCOBANK’s 14.3 — the stock trades at a premium despite weaker metrics.
• Backdrop: Banking outlook steady, but stock-specific fundamentals lag peers, limiting multiple expansion.

📝 Conclusion

• Setup: Bearish bias with oversold signals; expect consolidation/bounce toward 30–32 ₹ before trend re-evaluation.
• Strategy: Only tactical buys near 27–29 ₹ on confirmation; book into 30–32 ₹; keep tight stops below 26.8 ₹.
• Medium term: A sustained close above 32.8 ₹ (200 DMA) is needed to shift trend to neutral/bullish.