GODFRYPHLP - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Investment Analysis: Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (GODFRYPHLP)

Investment Rating: 4.3

🚀 Long-Term Investment Outlook

This stock stands out as a high-ROE, low-debt, resilient compounder with strong sector positioning and notable profitability. While the valuation is elevated, its PEG and EPS dynamics imply reasonable growth expectations baked into the price.

✅ Strengths

ROCE: 29.6% | ROE: 24.3% — Excellent efficiency and shareholder value creation.

EPS: ₹206 — Robust earnings base.

PEG Ratio: 0.89 — Reasonable valuation given growth rate; still attractive.

Debt-to-Equity: 0.03 — Near-zero leverage, indicating healthy balance sheet.

Qtr Profit Var: +31.2% — Strong earnings acceleration recently.

DII Holding ↑ (+0.56%) — Institutional confidence on the domestic side.

MACD: +126 — Positive momentum.

Trading Volume > Avg Vol — Buying interest likely expanding.

⚠️ Concerns

Stock P/E: 40.4 vs Industry PE: 31.5 — Premium valuation; priced for strong growth.

PAT ↓ QoQ (₹317 Cr. → ₹294 Cr.) — Mild earnings dip to monitor.

Dividend Yield: 0.63% — Low passive returns.

Book Value: ₹1,009 vs CMP ₹8,942 — Expensive relative to asset base.

FII Holding ↓ (-0.40%) — Slight foreign exit.

RSI: 52.5 — Neutral territory, not strongly oversold or overbought.

🎯 Ideal Entry Price Zone

₹8,000–₹8,400

Near 50-DMA support; better valuation comfort.

Wait for clearer directional confirmation via RSI uptick and volume surge.

🧭 Strategy for Existing Holders

⏳ Holding Period

24–36 Months

Strong compounding potential if margins stay robust and brand moat expands.

🚪 Exit Strategy

Exit Zone: ₹9,800–₹10,200 (near 52W high)

Exit Triggers

ROE drops below 18%, indicating possible operating margin squeeze.

PEG crosses above 1.2 while EPS growth stagnates.

FII and DII show simultaneous quarter-over-quarter decline.

Price breaks below ₹8,000 with MACD reversal and RSI <45.

🧠 Final Thought

Godfrey Phillips feels like a premium play with disciplined fundamentals—ideal for long-term investors seeking profitability and stability over wild momentum. Stay patient, watch growth metrics, and keep a calibrated eye on institutional flows.

Curious how it stacks up against ITC or VST Industries in the consumer tobacco space? I can line those up for a sharper view.

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