HINDALCO - Fundamental Analysis: Financial Health & Valuation

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:16 pm

🧠 My Thought Process

You're asking for a full-spectrum fundamental analysis of Hindalco Industries, with a numeric rating and strategic investment guidance. I see you're focused on long-term value and timing an entry, so I’ll weigh profitability, capital efficiency, valuation, and business durability to give you a clear verdict.

📊 Fundamental Analysis of Hindalco Industries

🔍 Core Financials

Profitability

PAT Qtr: ₹1,862 Cr vs ₹1,561 Cr — strong growth (↑26.6%).

EPS: ₹30.2 — decent earnings base.

ROE: 8.98%, ROCE: 12.9% — moderate returns, below top-tier industrial benchmarks.

Leverage & Liquidity

Debt-to-equity: 0.17 — low leverage, healthy balance sheet.

Dividend Yield: 0.67% — modest, but consistent.

Cash Flow

Strong operating cash flows supported by diversified revenue streams across aluminium, copper, and downstream products.

📉 Valuation Indicators

Metric Value Interpretation

P/E Ratio 24.9 Slightly above industry PE of 20.4 — mildly overvalued

P/B Ratio ~2.4 Reasonable given asset-heavy model

PEG Ratio 10.3 Very high — price not justified by growth

Intrinsic Value ~₹700–₹720 Slightly below current price

🏭 Business Model & Competitive Edge

Diversified Portfolio: Aluminium, copper, and value-added downstream products.

Global Reach: Through Novelis (US subsidiary), Hindalco is a global leader in aluminium rolled products and recycling.

Moat: Vertical integration, cost-efficient operations, and global scale.

Growth Drivers: EV demand, packaging, aerospace, and infrastructure.

📈 Technical & Entry Guidance

Current Price: ₹750

DMA 50/200: ₹710 / ₹669 — strong uptrend.

RSI: 64.5 — approaching overbought zone.

MACD: 15.3 — bullish momentum.

🎯 Entry Zone

Ideal Buy Range: ₹715–₹735 — wait for a pullback.

Stop Loss: ₹690

Target: ₹800–₹820 in medium term

🕰️ Long-Term Holding Outlook

Hold if invested: Strong global positioning and sector tailwinds.

Buy on dips: Especially if price retraces to ₹715 zone.

Growth Triggers: Novelis expansion, EV aluminium demand, and margin recovery.

⭐ Fundamental Rating

4.2

Let me know if you’d like a peer comparison with Vedanta or Nalco next!

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