BHARATFORG - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 4.2

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: Stock is near its 52-week high (1,461 ₹), showing strong upward momentum but facing resistance at this level.
• Moving Averages: Current price (1,440 ₹) is above both 50 DMA (1,358 ₹) and 200 DMA (1,278 ₹), indicating a bullish trend.
• RSI: At 54.6, RSI is neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
• MACD: Positive at 13.8, showing bullish crossover and short-term upward momentum.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the upper band, indicating possible resistance and short-term consolidation.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (4,50,035) is slightly above 1-week average (4,32,092), confirming active participation near resistance.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 1,358 ₹ (50 DMA), 1,278 ₹ (200 DMA), and strong base at 1,200 ₹.
• Resistance Levels: 1,461 ₹ (52-week high). Breakout above this may lead to 1,500–1,520 ₹ zone.
• Entry Zone: 1,350–1,380 ₹ (near support, favorable risk-reward).
• Exit Zone: 1,460–1,500 ₹ (near resistance/top band).
• Trend Status: Trending upward but showing signs of consolidation near resistance.

✅ Positive

• Strong price above key moving averages.
• Healthy ROCE (14.6%) and ROE (13.7%).
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.33).
• Consistent institutional support from DIIs (+0.85%).

⚠️ Limitation

• High P/E ratio (50.6) compared to industry average (30.0).
• PEG ratio of 4.38 indicates expensive valuation relative to growth.
• Quarterly profit declined (-10.3% QoQ).

📉 Company Negative News

• Recent quarterly PAT fell from 339 Cr. to 316 Cr.
• FII holdings decreased (-0.75%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.

📊 Company Positive News

• Stock trading near 52-week high (96.1% of range).
• Strong EPS of 28 ₹ supports long-term earnings visibility.
• Dividend yield of 0.60% provides shareholder returns.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 30.0, lower than Bharat Forge’s valuation, suggesting premium pricing.
• Auto ancillary sector showing cyclical recovery with demand in exports and defense manufacturing.

📝 Conclusion

• Bharat Forge is in a bullish trend, supported by strong technicals and institutional buying.
• However, valuations are stretched, and profit growth has slowed.
• Optimal strategy: Buy near support (1,350–1,380 ₹) and book profits near resistance (1,460–1,500 ₹).
• Short-term outlook: Consolidation near highs; long-term outlook remains positive if earnings growth sustains.