AFCONS - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 3.2

📊 Fundamental Analysis Summary

Afcons Infrastructure (AFCONS) is a moderately attractive long-term investment in the infrastructure and EPC space. It has solid capital efficiency and manageable debt, but current valuation and recent earnings contraction raise caution. The stock is technically oversold, which may offer a tactical entry opportunity.

Metric Value Interpretation

Market Cap ₹14,590 Cr Mid-cap — decent scale but subject to volatility

Stock P/E 29.8 Overvalued vs. industry PE of 23.8

PEG Ratio 2.78 Significantly overvalued relative to growth — caution

ROE / ROCE 11.1% / 19.6% Strong ROCE — efficient operations; ROE moderate

Dividend Yield 0.63% Modest — not a major income play

Debt-to-Equity 0.45 Healthy — low leverage for infra sector

EPS ₹13.2 Reasonable earnings base

Book Value ₹143 Price-to-book ~2.8× — fair for infra with strong ROCE

PAT Growth (QoQ) -23.4% Decline — short-term concern

RSI / MACD 28.3 / -7.00 RSI oversold; MACD negative — bearish but potential reversal zone

FII/DII Holding Change -2.41% / +2.46% FII selling — sentiment risk; DII accumulation — positive

52W Price Range ₹382 – ₹570 Near 52-week low — technical support possible

📉 Valuation & Entry Price Zone

PEG ratio near 3 suggests overvaluation, but strong ROCE and technical oversold conditions offer a tactical entry.

Ideal Entry Zone: ₹385 – ₹405

Near 52-week low and RSI <30 — good technical support

Accumulate gradually if PAT stabilizes and PEG improves

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Holding Strategy

Time Horizon: 2–3 years — suitable for infra-cycle recovery and earnings normalization

Exit Strategy: Consider partial exit if price rebounds to ₹480–₹500 without PAT or PEG improvement

Monitor: PAT trend, PEG ratio, and ROCE sustainability

Key Triggers to Watch

PAT returning above ₹130 Cr consistently

PEG ratio falling below 2.0

ROCE maintained above 18%

🧠 Final Thoughts

Afcons Infrastructure is a decent long-term play in the infra space, especially if you're betting on government capex and infra push. While valuation is currently rich, its operational efficiency and low debt make it worth watching — especially near technical support.

Would you like a comparison with peers like KNR Constructions or PNC Infratech to evaluate better-valued infra stocks?

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