PAGEIND - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 3.6

📊 Fundamental Analysis

Strengths

Exceptional ROE (48.5%) & ROCE (59.4%): Indicates elite-level capital efficiency and profitability — among the best in the consumer sector.

Low Debt-to-Equity (0.19): Strong balance sheet with minimal leverage.

Healthy Dividend Yield (1.92%): Offers decent income for long-term holders.

Strong EPS (₹654): Reflects robust earnings power.

Consistent Institutional Interest: FII holdings increased (+0.45%) — a positive signal.

Quarterly Profit Growth (51.6%): Indicates operational strength despite seasonal fluctuations.

Concerns

Very High P/E (71.6) vs Industry (32.6): Premium valuation — priced for perfection.

Extremely High PEG Ratio (6.66): Suggests overvaluation relative to earnings growth.

Decline in PAT: From ₹205 Cr to ₹164 Cr — needs monitoring.

Neutral RSI (46.7) & MACD (24.2): No strong momentum signal.

Price Below 50 DMA (₹47,040): Indicates short-term weakness.

💡 Is It a Good Long-Term Investment?

Yes — selectively. Page Industries is a high-quality, moat-driven business with exceptional return metrics and brand strength. However, the valuation is extremely rich, and earnings growth must justify the premium. Best suited for long-term investors who prioritize quality over value.

🎯 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Fair Value Zone: ₹43,000–₹45,000 This range aligns with the 200 DMA and offers a better margin of safety.

Aggressive Entry: ₹40,000–₹42,000 Near recent support levels — ideal for long-term accumulation during market dips.

🧭 Exit Strategy / Holding Period

If you already hold the stock

Holding Period: 5+ years to benefit from compounding ROE and brand-driven growth.

Exit Strategy

Partial Exit near ₹50,000–₹51,000 if valuation remains high and earnings stagnate.

Full Exit if PEG stays above 6.0 and ROE drops below 35%.

Re-evaluate if RSI crosses 75 or MACD turns sharply negative — could signal short-term peak.

Would you like a comparison with other premium consumer brands like Trent or Bata to assess relative valuation and growth durability?

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