HINDCOPPER - Fundamental Analysis: Financial Health & Valuation

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:16 pm

🧠 My Thought Process

You're asking for a full-spectrum fundamental analysis of Hindustan Copper Ltd (HINDCOPPER), with a numeric rating and strategic investment guidance. I see you're focused on long-term value and timing an entry, so I’ve weighed profitability, capital efficiency, valuation, and business durability to give you a clear verdict.

📊 Fundamental Analysis of Hindustan Copper Ltd

🔍 Core Financials

Profitability

PAT Qtr: ₹134 Cr vs ₹191 Cr — decline of 29.8%, but still positive YoY growth (↑18.4%).

EPS: ₹5.06 — modest, not aligned with current valuation.

ROE: 18.7%, ROCE: 23.8% — solid returns, especially for a PSU in mining.

Leverage & Liquidity

Debt-to-equity: 0.06 — extremely low, indicating strong financial health.

Dividend Yield: 0.52% — minimal, but consistent.

Cash Flow

Operational cash flows are improving, supported by higher copper prices and volume growth.

Capex of ₹2,000 Cr planned over 5–6 years to triple mining capacity

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📉 Valuation Indicators

Metric Value Interpretation

P/E Ratio 55.4 Very high vs industry PE of 35 — overvalued

P/B Ratio ~10.1 Premium valuation, not justified by book value

PEG Ratio 7.39 Extremely high — growth not justifying price

Intrinsic Value ~₹210–₹230 Well below current price — limited upside

🏭 Business Model & Competitive Edge

Segment Leadership: Only vertically integrated copper producer in India.

Moat: Controls ~45% of India’s copper ore reserves

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Growth Drivers

Expansion from 4 MTPA to 12.2 MTPA mining capacity

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Strategic MoUs with RITES, IOCL, Coal India, and GAIL for new deposits

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Rising copper demand from EVs, data centers, and renewables

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📈 Technical & Entry Guidance

Current Price: ₹280

DMA 50/200: ₹253 / ₹252 — bullish breakout.

RSI: 69.0 — nearing overbought zone.

MACD: 9.43 — positive momentum.

🎯 Entry Zone

Ideal Buy Range: ₹245–₹260 — wait for pullback.

Stop Loss: ₹230

Target: ₹320–₹340 in medium term

🕰️ Long-Term Holding Outlook

Hold if invested: Strong growth potential, but valuation is stretched.

Buy on dips: Preferably near ₹250 zone.

Growth Triggers: Capex execution, copper price rally, and volume expansion.

⭐ Fundamental Rating

3.7

Let me know if you’d like a peer comparison with Nalco or Hindalco next!

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